Modelling of phosphorus pollution risk to watercourses in Scotland using Bayesian Belief Networks
PhosphoRisk model
Phosphorus (P) pollution is a major cause of surface water quality failures in Scotland. However, process-based modelling of P pollution is often hampered by lack of available data that would allow plausible representation of the complex processes involved in P mobilisation, transport and delivery to receiving waters, as well as gaps in the understanding of in-stream processing and the corresponding ecological impact.
Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are probabilistic graphical models that allow the integration of both quantitative and qualitative information from a range of sources (including data, other model outputs and non-scientific knowledge, such as expert opinion) in one model, whilst making explicit the uncertainties associated with both the model and data. This project aims to develop a risk-based model to facilitate the understanding of the effects of land use on P pollution risk within an uncertainty framework for river catchments across Scotland.
SEFARI is the collective of six Scottish world-leading Research Institutes working across the spectrum of environment, land, food, agriculture and communities – all topics which affect how we live our lives, in Scotland and beyond.
This project is funded by the Scottish Government RESAS Strategic Research Programme 2016-21.
