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Modelling of phosphorus pollution risk to watercourses in Scotland using Bayesian Belief Networks

Interactive model building workshop

PhosphoRisk model

Phosphorus (P) pollution is a major cause of surface water quality failures in Scotland. However, process-based modelling of P pollution is often hampered by lack of available data that would allow plausible representation of the complex processes involved in P mobilisation, transport and delivery to receiving waters, as well as gaps in the understanding of in-stream processing and the corresponding ecological impact.

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are probabilistic graphical models that allow the integration of both quantitative and qualitative information from a range of sources (including data, other model outputs and non-scientific knowledge, such as expert opinion) in one model, whilst making explicit the uncertainties associated with both the model and data. This project aims to develop a risk-based model to facilitate the understanding of the effects of land use on P pollution risk within an uncertainty framework for river catchments across Scotland.

SEFARI – Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research InstitutesSEFARI is the collective of six Scottish world-leading Research Institutes working across the spectrum of environment, land, food, agriculture and communities – all topics which affect how we live our lives, in Scotland and beyond.


Areas of Interest

Printed from /research/srp2016-21/wp122/modelling-phosphorus-pollution-risk-watercourses-scotland-using-bayesian-belief-networks on 05/12/22 08:25:14 AM

The James Hutton Research Institute is the result of the merger in April 2011 of MLURI and SCRI. This merger formed a new powerhouse for research into food, land use, and climate change.