Gary Polhill

Human-Natural Systems Research Scientist
Information and Computational Sciences
T: +44 (0)344 928 5428 (*)
I specialise in empirical applications of agent-based modelling to socio-(techno-)environmental systems, and rigorous approaches to their design, exploration and interpretation, with a view to developing useful knowledge to support decision-making in complex and wicked systems. Agent-based modelling involves explicit representation of individuals and their interactions, observing the emergent effects these have on the dynamics of the system. As well as applying agent-based modelling in specific contexts, I am interested in methodological and theoretical development, and high-performance computing support for large-scale agent-based modelling. I occasionally run training courses in various aspects of agent-based modelling.

Biography

I did a degree in Artificial Intelligence at the University of Sussex, and a PhD in Neural Networks at the University of St. Andrews, before spending 18 months in industry as a professional programmer. I joined the then Macaulay Land Use Research Institute in 1997, subsequently The James Hutton Institute in 2011 following the latter’s formation from legacy institutes. Throughout that period I have been working on various international and interdisciplinary projects using agent-based modelling to study agricultural systems, energy, lifestyles, and transitions to more sustainable ways of living.

I was  President of the European Social Simulation Association from 2016-2020, and was The James Hutton Institute’s 2017 Science Challenge Leader on Developing Technical and Social Innovations that Support Sustainable and Resilient Communities. I serve on the Science and Industrial Advisory Board of the UK Exascale Project. My work has been funded by the Scottish Government; the European Commission through Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020; UKRI through the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council and the Economic & Social Research Council; the Research Council of Norway; and the Macaulay Development Trust.

Research

My current research is focused on large-scale modelling to support policy scenario analysis, and getting the agent-based modelling community in a position where it more routinely takes advantage of high-performance computing, leading to us being able to deploy exascale applications of agent-based models to support real-time decision-making.

You can read more about the challenges faced by agent-based modellers accessing high-performance computing facilities, my motivation for growing the application of agent-based simulations in real-time decision-making context, and some strategic directions for agent-based modelling work that informs my current research.

Past research

I have been involved in a number of international and inter- and transdisciplinary research projects, listed below (note that for older projects links are liable to get mothballed):

  • The CAVES (Complexity, Agents, Volatility, Evidence and Scale) project (2005-2008) was funded by the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme New and Emerging Science and Technology Pathfinder Initiative on Tackling Complexity in Science.
  • PolicyGrid (2006-2009) and PolicyGrid II (2009-2012) were collaborations with the University of Aberdeen funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the National Centre for e-Social Science. This work also led to a short project called SwarmCloud with the aim of grid-enabling the FEARLUS model. (See also PolicyGrid and PolicyGrid II entry on ESRC’s research catalogue.)
  • The GILDED (Governance, Infrastructure, Lifestyle Dynamics and Energy Demand) project (2008-2012) was funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme.
  • The LOCAW (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe) project (2011-2013) was funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme.
  • The MIRACLE (Mining Relationships Among Variables in Large Datasets from Complex Systems) project (2014-2015) was funded by Round 3 of the Digging into Data Challenge. The UK contribution was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council via Jisc.
  • The GLAMURS (Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models and Up-scaling Regional Sustainability) project (2014-2016) was funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme.
  • The SMARTEES (Social Innovation Modelling Approaches to Realizing Transition to Energy Efficiency and Sustainability) project (2017-2021) was funded by the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Programme.
Image result for agent-based modeling of sustainable behaviors

Publications

The following Publications have not yet been migrated to the James Hutton Institute's Pure service and relate to the research outputs from the two legacy organisations: The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute and The Scottish Crop Research Institute.

Journals

Books / chapters

  • Gimona, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Davies, B.B. (2011) Sinks, sustainability and conservation incentives., In: Sources, Sinks and Sustainability (eds. Liu, J., Hull, V., Morzillo, A., and Wiens, J). Cambridge University Press, Chapter 8, pp155-178.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G.; Law, A.N.R. (2010) Agent-based simulation in the study of social dilemmas., In: Gilbert, N. (ed.). Computational Social Science. SAGE Benchmarks in Social Research Methods Series, Volume 3. Sage Publications. ISBN-10: 1847871712, ISBN-13: 978-1847871718.
  • Polhill, J.G. (2009) Agent-based modelling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: Example of land-use change., In: Baveye, P., Mysiak, J., Laba, M. (eds.). Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy-Making. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C – Environmental Security, Springer, 61-76. ISBN 978-90-481-2634
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2009) Narrative scenarios, mediating formalisms, and the agent-based simulation of land use change., In: Squazzoni, F. (ed.). Epistemological Aspects of Computer Simulation in the Social Sciences, Proceedings from 2nd International Workshop on Epistemological Perspectives on Simulation (EPOS), Brescia, Italy, 4-5 October 2006. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 5466, 99-116.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2008) Enhancing workflow with semantic descriptions of scientific intent., In: Goos, G., Hartmanis, J. & van Leeuwen (eds.). The Semantic Web: Research and Applications, 5th European Semantic Web Conference, Tenerife, Spain, 1-5 June 2008. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 5021, Springer, Berlin, pp644-658.
  • Parker, D.C.; Brown, D.G.; Polhill, J.G.; Deadman, P.J.; Manson, S.M. (2008) Ilustrating a new “conceptual design pattern” for agent-based models of land use via five case studies – the MR POTATOHEAD framework., In: Lopez Paredes, A. & Hernandez, I. Agent-Based Modelling in Natural Resource Management. INSISOC, Valladolid, Spain, 23-51
  • Polhill, J.G.; Parker, D.C.; Gotts, N.M. (2007) Effects of land markets on competition between innovators and imitators in land use: results from FEARLUS-ELMM., In: Edmonds, B., Hernandez Iglesias, C. & Troitzsch, K.G. Social Simulation: Technologies, Advances and New Discoveries. Information Science Reference, London, Chapter 7, 81-97.

Technical / contract reports

  • Sutherland, L.A.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2006) CAVES: Complexity, agents, volatility, evidence and scale., Grampian Region Field Research Report. CAVES EU F6 Project.
  • Matthews, R.B.; Gilbert, N.; Roach, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M.; Izquierdo, L.R. (2005) Development of a rural economy and land use simulation modelling strategy., Final Project Report of RELU Development Activity RES-224-25-0102, Macaulay Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB158QH, UK.

Conference papers

  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M.; Jarvis, A. (2011) Individual- and Agent-Based Modelling as a basis for theorising complex systems., Complex Systems Research Projects Forum, European Conference on Complex Systems 2011, Vienna, Austria, 16 September 2011.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Sanchez, N.; Craig, T.; Polhill, J.G. (2011) Agent-based modelling in the LOCAW project., European Social Simulation Association Conference (ESSA 2011), Montpelier, France, 19-23 September 2011.
  • Pignotti, E.; Polhill, J.G.; Edwards, P.; Gotts, N.M. (2011) Applying provenance to social simulation., European Social Simulation Association Conference (ESSA 2011), Montpelier, France, 19-23 September 2011.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2011) Semantic model integration: an application for OWL., European Social Simulation Association Conference (ESSA 2011), Montpelier, France, 19-23 September 2011.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Galan-Diaz, C.R.; Gotts, N.M.; Craig, T.; Marshall, K.; Sutherland, L-A.; Kriel, A.; Fischer, A. (2010) The ODDness of modelling: early experiences from a transdisciplinary modelling exercise., Third World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS 2010), University of Kassel, Germany, 6-9 September 2010.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gimona, A.; Gotts, N.M. (2010) Analysis of incentive schemes for biodiversity using a coupled agent-based model of land use change and species metacommunity model., Modelling for Environment’s Sake. International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 5-8 July 2010.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Jarvis, A.; Gimona, A.; Gotts, N.M. (2010) Adaptive control of landscape biodiversity., Modelling for Environment’s Sake, International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 5-8 July, 2010.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2009) Size matters: Results from large-scale replications of experiments with FEARLUS., European Social Simulation Association (ESSA), 6th Conference, University of Surrey, Guildford, 14-18 September 2009. On cd-rom.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2008) Handling space and time in an ontology-based integrated action modeling arena., ABS2, Agent-Based Spatial Simulation International Workshop, ISC-PIF, Paris, France, 24-25 November 2008.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M.; Preece, A. (2008) A semantic workflow mechanism to realise experimental goals and constraints., The 3rd Workshop on Workflows in Support of Large-Scale Science in conjunction with SC’08, Austin, Texas, 17 November 2008.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gimona, A.; Davies, B.; Gotts, N.M.; McCracken, D.; Catalan, A.; Dury, G.; Decorps, D. (2008) A model for exploring human-natural system interactions in the context of agricultural biodiversity., European Social Simulation Association Conference, 5th, Brescia, Italy, September 2008.
  • Parker, D.; Polhill, G.; Mussavi, M. (2008) An OWL (Web Ontology Language) representation of the MR POTATOHEAD agent-based land-use change meta-model., Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, 15-19 April, 2008.
  • Gimona, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Davies, B.; Catalan, A.; Dury, G.; Teil, A. (2007) A stylised model of the influence of land use decisions on landscape and biodiversity patterns formation., British Ecological Society General Meeting, University of Glasgow, 10-12 September 2007.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2007) Semantic workflow management for eSocial Science., Third International Conference on e-Social Science, Ann Arbor, Michigan, US, 7-9 October 2007.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2007) Using Collective Rewards and Social Interactions to Control Agricultural Pollution: Explorations with FEARLUS-W., In: Interdisciplinary approaches to the simulation of social phenomena. (ed. F. Amblard). Conference of the European Social Simulation, Association, 4th, Toulouse, France, 10-14 September 2007, pp253-262.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2007) Evaluating a prototype self-description feature in an agent-based model of land use change., In: Interdisciplinary approaches to the simulation of social phenomena (ed. F. Amblard). Conference of the European Social Simulation, Association, 4th, Toulouse, France, 10-14 September 2007, pp711-718
  • Polhill, J.G.; Parker, D.C.; Brown, D.G.; Grimm, V. (2007) Using the ODD protocol for comparing three agent-based social simulation models of land use change., In: International Model-to-Model Workshop (eds. J. Rouchier, C. Cioffi-Revilla, J.G. Polhill. And K. Takadama, K.). M2M 2007, 3rd, Marseille, France 15-16 March 2007, pp140-164.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2006) Narrative scenarios, mediating formalisms, and the agent-based simulation of land use change., Conference on Epistemological Perspectives on Simulation (EPOS06), 2nd, Brescia, Italy, 5-6 October 2006.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2006) A new approach to modelling frameworks., Proceedings of the First World Congress on Social Simulation, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 21-25 August 2006, Vol 1. pp215-222.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2006) Simulating socio-techno-ecosystems., Proceedings of the First World Congress on Social Simulation, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 21-25 August 2006, Vol 1. pp119-126.
  • Matthews, R.B.; Polhill, J.G.; Gilbert, N.; Roach, A.; (2005) Integrating agent-based social models and biophysical models., Proceedings, MODSIM Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 9-12 December, 2005.
  • Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Pignotti, E.; Polhill, G.; Gotts, N.M. (2005) Lessons learnt from deployment of a social simulation tool to the semantic grid., Proceedings of the First International Conference on eSocial Science, NCeSS/ESRC, Manchester, 22-24 June 2005.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2005) Providing ontology support for social simulation., Proceedings of the First International Conference on e-Social Science, NCeSS/ESRC, Manchester, 22-24 June 2005.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Pignotti, E.; Gotts, N.M.; Edwards, P. and Preece, A. (2005) An ontology for experimentation with a social simulation of land use change., In: Representing Social Reality, (ed. Klaus G. Troitzsch). European Simulation Association, 3rd Annual Conference, Koblenz, Germany 5-9 September 2005, pp324-330.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2005) Semantic support for computational land-use modelling., Proceedings of the Fifth IEEE International Symposium on Cluster Computing and Grid (CCGrid), Cardiff, 9-12 May 2005, IEEE Press.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Parker, D.C.; Gotts, N.M. (2005) Introducing land markets to an agent based model of land use change: a design., European Simulation Association, 3rd Annual Conference, Koblenz, Germany.
  • Izquierdo, L.R.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G.; Edmonds, B. (2005) Social dilemmas: What if not everybody knows that everybody knows that everybody is rational?, Working Paper Series,12, Graduate School of Business, Manchester Metropolitan University.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Preece, A.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2004) FEARLUS-G: a semantic grid service for land use modelling., International Workshop on Semantic Intelligent Middleware for the Web and the Grid, Valencia, Spain, 23-24 August, 2004.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Izquierdo, L.R.; Gotts, N.M. (2003) The ghost in the model and other effects of floating point arithmetic., European Social Simulation Association, SIMSOC VI Workshop.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G.; Law, A.N.R.; Izquierdo, L.R. (2003) Dynamics of imitation in a land use simulation., In: Proceedings of International Symposium on Imitation in Animals and Artefacts, 2nd, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, 7-11 April 2003, pp39-46.

Conference posters / abstracts

  • Pignotti, E.; Polhill, J.G.; Edwards, P. (2010) Using a virtual machine environment to support simulations on the grid., Swarmfest 2010, Santa Fe Complex, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 20-22 June 2010.
  • Long, D.G.; Hawes, C.; McCracken, D.; Polhill, G.; Gimona, A. (2009) Informing the development of measures to address lowland biodiversity concerns., Science-Policy-Success. Knowledge Scotland Conference and Workshop, Our Dynamic Earth, Edinburgh, 7-8 October 2009.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2009) Supporting distributed simulation experiments on the eScience infrastructure., UK s-Science All Hands Meeting 2009: Past, Present and Future, 5th IEEE International Conference, Oxford, UK, 7-9 December 2009.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Polhill, J.G. (2009) Supporting simulations on the grid using workflows and virtual machines., UK s-Science All Hands Meeting 2009: Past, Present and Future, 5th IEEE International Conference, Oxford, UK, 7-9 December 2009.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Parker, D.C. (2009) An introduction to agent-based modelling of coupled human-natural systems., GLP Symposium on Agent Based Modelling of Land Use Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services, US-IALE Symposium, Snowbird, Utah, 12-16 April 2009.
  • Aspinall, R.J.; Polhill, G. (2009) Lessons learned and prospects for agent-based modelling of land use effects on ecosystem processes and services., GLP Symposium on Agent Based Modelling of Land Use Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services, US-IALE Symposium, Snowbird, Utah, 12-16 April 2009.
  • Pignotti, E.; Polhill, J.G.; Edwards, P. (2009) Using a virtual machine environment to support simulation on the grid., European Social Simulation Association, (ESSA), 6th Conference, University of Surrey, Guildford, 14-18 September 2009.
  • Mussavi Rizi, S.; Parker, D.; Polhill, G. (2008) MR POTATOHEAD goes onto OWL: An ontological rendition of agent-based models of land use and cover change., World Congress on Social Simulation 2008 (WCSS-08), George Mason University, Fairfax, 14-17July 2008.
  • Pignotti, E.; Edwards, P.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2008) Semantic workflow management for social simulation., UK e-Science All hands Meeting, Edinburgh, 8-11 September 2008.
  • Davies, B.; Polhill, G.; Gimona, A.; Catalan, A.; Izquierdo, L. (2007) Modelling the response of socio-ecological systems to changing land use policies: coupling metapopulations and agent-based approaches., ESEE 2007 Integrating Natural and Social Sciences for Sustainability: 7th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics, UFZ – Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany, 5-8 June 2007.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gimona, A.; McCracken, D.; Davies, B. (2007) Exploring environmental policy with coupled natural and human system modelling., Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable, Royal Society of Edinburgh, 25 June 2007.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2007) Using social interactions in the control of diffuse agricultural pollution: modelling with FEARLUS-W., C2007: 2007 Annual International Conference at the Royal Geographical Society with IBG, London, 29-31 August 2007.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Gimona, A.; Davies, B.; Catalan, A. (2007) Modelling the influences of policy and land management decisions on biodiversity: Considerations for coupling models., In: Framing Land Use Dynamics II. International Conference (eds. E. Addink, A. Barendregt, D. Ettema, D. Karssenberg, and T. de Nijs). Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 18-20 April 2007, pp153-154.
  • Gimona, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Izquierdo, L.; Davies, B.B. (2006) Integrating agent-based social simulation and biodiversity modelling., British Ecological Society, General Meeting, Oxford, 5-7 September 2006.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Ziervogel, G. (2006) Using ontologies with case studies: an end-user perspective on OWL., National Centre for e-Social Science Annual Conference 2006, Manchester, UK.
  • Parker, D.C.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M. (2006) Do land markets matter? Preliminary results from the ELMM model., The Association of American Geographers Meeting, “Perspectives on Geographic Complexity 2: Institutions, Markets and Policy”, Chicago, Illinois, 7-11 March 2006.
  • Polhill, J.G.; Koo, B.; Izquierdo, L.R.; Dunn, S.; Gotts, N.M.; Rothman, D.S.; Ferrier, R.C. (2004) Designs for coupling an agent-based model of land use change with a spatially-explicit hydrochemical model., LUCC/EFEIA/WOTRO Joint International Workshop. Integrated assessment of the land system: The future of land use. Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam, 28-30 October 2004.
  • Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G.; Adam, W.J. (2003) Simulation and analysis in agent-based modelling of land use change., First Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, SIMSOC VI Workshop.
  • Izquierdo, L.R.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G. (2003) FEARLUS – W: an agent-based model of river basin land use and water management., In: Framing Land Use Dynamics (M. Dijst, P. Schot and K. de Jong). Reviewed abstracts International Conference, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 16-18 April 2003. pp163-165.
  • Aalders, I.H.; Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, G.; Law, A.; Birnie, R.V.B.; Aspinall, R.J. (2001) Land use change – a challenge for integrated modelling., Challenges of a Changing Earth, Global Change Open Science Conference (IGBP), Amsterdam, 10-13 July 2001.

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