Gary Polhill

Information and Computational Sciences

Human-Natural Systems Research Scientist

gary.polhill@hutton.ac.uk

+44 (0)344 928 5428 (*)

The James Hutton Institute
Craigiebuckler
Aberdeen AB15 8QH
Scotland UK

Gary Polhill did a degree in Artificial Intelligence and a PhD in Neural Networks before spending 18 months in industry as a professional programmer. Since 1997 he has been working at the Institute on agent-based modelling of human-natural systems, and has worked on various international and interdisciplinary projects using agent-based modelling to study agricultural systems, lifestyles, and transitions to more sustainable ways of living. In 2016, he was elected President of the European Social Simulation Association, and is The James Hutton Institute's current Science Challenge Leader on Developing Technical and Social Innovations that Support Sustainable and Resilient Communities.

ORCID, ResearcherID, Google Scholar, Linked-In, ResearchGate, @GaryPolhill

Current research interests

I specialise in agent-based modelling of socio-environmental systems, and rigorous approaches to their design and interpretation. Agent-based modelling involves explicit representation of individuals and their interactions, observing the emergent effects these have on the dynamics of the system. It is a relatively new technique, offering an alternative to more traditional approaches to formal analysis of social systems. Within this context, I am particularly interested in options for managing environmental change in coupled human-natural systems through incentive schemes, but in the context of other drivers of human behaviour. We have developed models that can simulate and compare the effects of different rules for incentivising land managers on biodiversity at the landscape scale, whilst varying other drivers of decision change, such as markets, climate and social norms. I have also worked on agent-based modelling of lifestyles, pro-environmental behaviours and transitions to more sustainable ways of living, and current work is examining value chains and resilience in Scottish and Norwegian rural systems.

A key issue in developing models of this kind is transparency, and I am interested in the role of formal ontologies in describing and annotating simulation models and experiments. This is work I have developed in projects with the University of Aberdeen and in subsequent projects.

Past research

I have been involved in a number of international and inter- and transdisciplinary research projects, listed below (note that for older projects links are liable to get mothballed):

The CAVES (Complexity, Agents, Volatility, Evidence and Scale) project (2005-2008) was funded by the European Commission's Sixth Framework Programme New and Emerging Science and Technology Pathfinder Initiative on Tackling Complexity in Science.
PolicyGrid (2006-2009) and PolicyGrid II (2009-2012) were collaborations with the University of Aberdeen funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the National Centre for e-Social Science. This work also led to a short project called SwarmCloud with the aim of grid-enabling the FEARLUS model. (See also PolicyGrid and PolicyGrid II entry on ESRC's research catalogue.)
The GILDED (Governance, Infrastructure, Lifestyle Dynamics and Energy Demand) project (2008-2012) was funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.
The LOCAW (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe) project (2011-2013) was funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.
The MIRACLE (Mining Relationships Among Variables in Large Datasets from Complex Systems) project (2014-2015) was funded by Round 3 of the Digging into Data Challenge. The UK contribution was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council via Jisc.
The GLAMURS (Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models and Up-scaling Regional Sustainability) project (2014-2016) was funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.

Bibliography

Recent

Gotts, N.M.; van Voorn, G.A.K.; Polhill, J.G.; de Jong, E.; Edmonds, B.; Hofstede, G.J.; Meyer, R., (In press) Modelling socio-ecological systems., Ecological Complexity.
Polhill, J.G., (In press) Why the social simulation community should tackle prediction., Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
Gonzalez-Redin, J.; Polhill, J.G., Dawson, T.P., Hill, R.; Gordon, I.J., (2018) It's not the 'what', but the 'how': Exploring the role of debt in natural resource (un)sustainability., PLoS ONE, 13, Article No. e0201141.
Ge, J.; Polhill, G.J.; Craig, T.; Liu, N., (2018) From oil wealth to green growth: An empirical agent-based model of recession, migration and sustainable urban transition., Environmental Modelling and Software, 107, 119-140.
Ge, J.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.P., (2018) Too much of a good thing? Using a spatial agent-based model of transport to evaluate workplace sharing programs in Aberdeen., Journal of Transport Geography, 69, 83-97.
Jin, X.B.; Robinson, K.; Lee, A.; Polhill. J.G.; Pritchard, C.; Parker, D.C., (2017) A prototype cloud-based reproducible data analysis and visualization platform for outputs of agent-based models., Environmental Modelling and Software, 96, 172-180.
Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J. G., (2017) Experiments with a model of domestic energy demand., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 20, Article No. 11.
Ge, J.; Sutherland, L.A.; Polhill, J.G.; Matthews, K.B.; Miller, D.G.; Wardell-Johnson, D., (2017) Exploring factors affecting on-farm renewable energy adoption in Scotland using large-scale microdata., Energy Policy, 107, 548-560.
Garcia-Mira, R.; Dumitru, A.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Sánchez-Maroño, N.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Craig, T.; Polhill, J.G, (2017) Testing scenarios to achieve workplace sustainability goals using backcasting and agent-based modeling., Environment and Behavior, 49, 1007-1037.
Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Sanchez-Marono, N.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Dumitru, A.; Garcia-Mira, R.; Bonnes, M.; Bonaiuto, M.; Carrus, G.; Marricchiolo, F.; Fornara, F.; Ilin, C.; Steg, L.; Ruepert, A.; Keizer, K., (2017) Interactions matter. Modelling everyday pro-environmental norm transmission and diffusion in workplace networks., In: Alonso-Betanzos, A., Sánchez-Maroño, N., Fontenla-Romero, O., Polhill, J.G., Craig, T., Bajo, J. & Corchado, J.M. (eds.) Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Behaviors. Cham, Switzerland, Springer, pp27-52.
Grimm, V.; Polhill, J.G.; Touza, J., (2017) Documenting social simulation models: The ODD protocol as a standard. (Revised), In: Edmonds, B. & Meyer, R. (eds.). Simulating Social Complexity: A Handbook. 2nd edition. Springer, Berlin, pp349-365.
Polhill, J.G.; Salt, D., (2017) The importance of ontological structure: why validation by ‘fit-to-data’ is insufficient., In: Edmonds, B. & Meyer, R. (eds.) Simulating Social Complexity: A Handbook. 2nd edition. Springer, 141-172.
Sanchez-Maronon, N.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T., (2017) Empirically-deprived behavioural rules in agent-based models using decision trees learned from questionnaire data., In: Alonso-Betanzos, A., Sanchez-Marono, N., Fontenla-Romera, O., Polhill, J.G., Craig, T., Bajo, J. & Corchado, M. (eds.). Agent Based Modelling of Sustainable Behaviours. Springer, Switzerland, Chapter 3, pp53-76.
Ge, J.; Polhill, J.G., (2017) Preliminary results from an agent-based model of the daily commute in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, UK., In: Jager, W., Verbrugge R., Flache A., de Roo G., Hoogduin L. & Hemelrijk C. (eds.) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 528. Springer, Cham., pp129-142.
Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M., (2017) How precise are the specifications of a psychological theory? Comparing implementations of Lindenberg and Steg's Goal-Framing Theory of everyday pro-environmental behaviour., In: Jager, W., Verbrugge R., Flache A., de Roo G., Hoogduin L. & Hemelrijk C. (eds.) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 528. Springer, Cham., 341-354.
Polhill, J.G.; Milazzo, L.; Dawson, T.; Gimona, A.; Parker, D., (2017) Lessons learned replicating the analysis of outputs from a social simulation of biodiversity incentivisation., In: Jager, W., Verbrugge R., Flache A., de Roo G., Hoogduin L. & Hemelrijk C. (eds.) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 528. Springer, Cham., 355-365.
Ge, J.; Polhill, J.G., (2016) Exploring the combined effect of factors influencing commuting patterns and CO2 emissions in Aberdeen using an agent-based model., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 19, Article No. 11.
Polhill, J.G.; Filatova, T.; Schlüter, M.; Voinov, A., (2016) Preface to the thematic issue on modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems., Environmental Modelling and Software, 75, 317.
Polhill, J.G.; Filatova, T.; Schluter, M.; Voinov, A., (2016) Modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems., Environmental Modelling and Software, 75, 318-332.
Filatova, T.; Polhill, J.G.; van Ewijk, S., (2016) Regime shifts in coupled socio-environmental systems: review of modelling challenges and approaches., Environmental Modelling and Software, 75, 333-347.
Salt, D.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T., (2016) Deliverable 2.2: Report on the ontology generation and data and knowledge integration., Green Lifestyles Alternative Models and Up-scaling Regional Sustainability / GLAMURS EU SSH.2013.2.1-1 Grant Agreement No. 613420.
Salt, D.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T., (2016) Deliverable 2., Report for Glamurs Ontology Project.
Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Ge, J.; Lorenzo-Arribas, A., (2016) Out-of-range wattage in CurrentCost energy monitor readings., Short Report to CurrentCost.
Lee, J.-S.; Filatova, T.; Ligmann-Zielinska, A.; Hassani-Mahmooei, B.; Stonedahl, F.; Lorscheid, I.; Voinov, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Sun, Z.; Parker, D.C., (2015) The complexities of agent-based modeling output analysis., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 18, Article No. 4.
Sanchez-Marono, N.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Brinquis-Nunez, C.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Dumitru, A.; Garcia-Mira, R., (2015) An agent-based model for simulating environmental behavior in an educational organization., Neural Processing Letters, 42, 89-118.
Polhill, J.G., (2015) Extracting OWL ontologies from agent-based models: a netlogo extension., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 18, Article No. 15.
Gimona, A.; Poggio, L.; Polhill, J.G.; Castellazzi, M., (2015) Habitat networks and food security: promoting species range shift under climate change depends on life history and the dynamics of land use choices., Landscape Ecology, 30, 771-789.
Sanchez-Maronon, N.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T., (2015) Designing decision trees for representing sustainable behaviours in agents., In: Bajo, J., Hernandez, J.Z., Mathieu, P., Campbell, A., FernandezCaballero, A., Moreno, M.N., Julian, V., AlonsoBetanzos, A., JimenezLopez, M.D. & Botti, V. (eds.). Trends in Practical Applications of Agents, Multi-Agent Systems and Sustainability: The PAAMS Collection, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Sustainability, Springer, Berlin, Volume 372, 169-176.
Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Galan-Diaz, C., (2014) Combining diverse data sources for CEDSS, an agent-based model of domestic energy demand., Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences, 7(1).
Edwards, P.; Pignotti, E.; Mellish, C.; Eckhardt, A.; Ponnamperuma, K.; Bouttaz, T.; Philip, L.; Pangbourne, K.; Polhill, J.G.; Gotts, N.M., (2014) Lessons learnt from the deployment of a semantic virtual research environment., Journal of Web Semantics, 27-28, 70-77.

Highlighted

Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Sanchez-Marono, N.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Dumitru, A.; Garcia-Mira, R.; Bonnes, M.; Bonaiuto, M.; Carrus, G.; Marricchiolo, F.; Fornara, F.; Ilin, C.; Steg, L.; Ruepert, A.; Keizer, K., (2017) Interactions matter. Modelling everyday pro-environmental norm transmission and diffusion in workplace networks., In: Alonso-Betanzos, A., Sánchez-Maroño, N., Fontenla-Romero, O., Polhill, J.G., Craig, T., Bajo, J. & Corchado, J.M. (eds.) Agent-Based Modeling of Sustainable Behaviors. Cham, Switzerland, Springer, pp27-52.
Jin, X.B.; Robinson, K.; Lee, A.; Polhill. J.G.; Pritchard, C.; Parker, D.C., (2017) A prototype cloud-based reproducible data analysis and visualization platform for outputs of agent-based models., Environmental Modelling and Software, 96, 172-180.
Gotts, N.M.; Polhill, J. G., (2017) Experiments with a model of domestic energy demand., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 20, Article No. 11.
Lee, J.-S.; Filatova, T.; Ligmann-Zielinska, A.; Hassani-Mahmooei, B.; Stonedahl, F.; Lorscheid, I.; Voinov, A.; Polhill, J.G.; Sun, Z.; Parker, D.C., (2015) The complexities of agent-based modeling output analysis., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 18, Article No. 4.
Sanchez-Marono, N.; Alonso-Betanzos, A.; Fontenla-Romero, O.; Brinquis-Nunez, C.; Polhill, J.G.; Craig, T.; Dumitru, A.; Garcia-Mira, R., (2015) An agent-based model for simulating environmental behavior in an educational organization., Neural Processing Letters, 42, 89-118.
Polhill, J.G., (2015) Extracting OWL ontologies from agent-based models: a netlogo extension., Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 18, Article No. 15.

Scientific posters/conferences

Attachment	Size
Modelling the response of socio-ecological systems to changing land use policies: coupling metapopulations and agent-based approaches	346.61 KB
Researching Household Energy Use - The North East Scotland Energy Monitoring Project	2.31 MB
Modelling everyday pro-environmental behaviour - Scenario studies using agent-based models	6.43 MB

Gary Polhill